Nov 6, 2012 9:00am EST
. in higher third of unemployment. what else is dark? california is dark. these are safe democratic states. where is unemployment low? from north dakota down to oklahoma none of that is going for obama. only one place perhaps. virginia is a potential swing state and also wisconsin. maybe that low rate is a precondition for obama to potentially win it. let's look at the change. again, very similar. darker is less change. less improving unemployment. new york, not a good state for change of unemployment over the last year but probably safely in the obama camp. the one place you might want to look here, nevada, florida, north carolina and virginia. those are all potentially in play because they had some improvement in the unemployment rate and if that had not been there, they might have been for romney. i would like to give you a definitive answer. you have the level of unemployment and you have the change. that's what makes this a horse race, simon. >> it's fascinating to see that the way you slice and dice going into the election whether it's turnout or amazing. steve, thank you very much.